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Dec 28, 2012
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cliff. >> spending cuts this is based on good intentions, a framework or agree to agree to spending cuts down the road and this is the criticism that historically, sort of ad nauseam, that there are those good intentions that never through. >> all of the republicans will hear grover norquist recite over and over, every time they promise spending cuts in exchange for tax hikes, the tax hikes came, the spending cuts never came. >> and how long will the road be in terms of what the subpoenaing cuts might or might not be? that will prolong the uncertainty in the market. and with the ceo conference call in the 6:00 hour, that should be very interesting. will we feel the effect of this in the first quarter earnings and gdp, other economic data points. >> it puts republican caucus in the house in the position of having to decide whether no deal is better than a bad deal. >> you know, melissa, if i could chime in, one thing, you didn't hear the president talking about the debt ceiling, and the treasury secretary says we'll start running up against the debt ceiling on monday. that's a very c
cliff. >> spending cuts this is based on good intentions, a framework or agree to agree to spending cuts down the road and this is the criticism that historically, sort of ad nauseam, that there are those good intentions that never through. >> all of the republicans will hear grover norquist recite over and over, every time they promise spending cuts in exchange for tax hikes, the tax hikes came, the spending cuts never came. >> and how long will the road be in terms of what...
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Dec 31, 2012
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but avoiding the fiscal cliff is really not the goal here. cutting the deficit is. this is a case of gigantic political friendly fire in my view. we're targeting the wrong enemy. we should be targeting the deficit. >> i've read, dan, more carefully and it's extremely insightful. and one of the things that i take from you is that you're a markets guy who thinks about macro, and not just u.s. macro, but global macro. what i don't get about what you're saying now -- one thing i get very much about what you're saying now is a small deal doesn't solve anything except the immediate cliff problem and that's not the only problem we have. it's actually relatively minor, i agree with you. but if we engage in $500 billion fiscal contraction next year i think we're going to have a recession. as a guy who pays attention to macro, how does that help anybody? >> well, look, i actually -- one of the reasons i said, and it was a provocation of saying, the fiscal cliff, after the election, my view of where this was going was exactly where we are this morning. which is probably why yo
but avoiding the fiscal cliff is really not the goal here. cutting the deficit is. this is a case of gigantic political friendly fire in my view. we're targeting the wrong enemy. we should be targeting the deficit. >> i've read, dan, more carefully and it's extremely insightful. and one of the things that i take from you is that you're a markets guy who thinks about macro, and not just u.s. macro, but global macro. what i don't get about what you're saying now -- one thing i get very much...
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Dec 24, 2012
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, do you see anything from the fiscal cliff? >> i think the average consumer doesn't understand the fiscal cliff but i think they watch the news and understand something is wrong and people are very worried about it. i think that the way things stand now, if we do go over the cliff, it is going to be most of an impact for lower end consumer. i think the higher end consumer still has an ability to spend. certainly maybe a bit more cognizant of impaktd opinion but their ability to spend on discretionary categories, it is not hammered to the extent it'll cause major pull back in spending and categories of things we cover. maybe they won't buy boats and homes, but i think sweaters and watches will sell good in that category. >> that is certainly a big, big worry but again a worry for lower end consumer. more so than the higher end consumer. if you look at employment trends, high end versus low end, it is a very different story and i think that the lower end consumer is the consumer i'm most worried about if we good over the fiscal c
, do you see anything from the fiscal cliff? >> i think the average consumer doesn't understand the fiscal cliff but i think they watch the news and understand something is wrong and people are very worried about it. i think that the way things stand now, if we do go over the cliff, it is going to be most of an impact for lower end consumer. i think the higher end consumer still has an ability to spend. certainly maybe a bit more cognizant of impaktd opinion but their ability to spend on...
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Dec 26, 2012
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president obama cutting short his annual vacation in hawaii to deal with the fiscal cliff. no sight of congressional leaders. they're not in town. investors getting a little bit nervous. will congress get it together in time? no talks that we know of are imminent. it was by at least one measure, the weakest holiday retail sales growth since the financial crisis back in 2008, but could a post-christmas holiday sales bounce be around the corner? >>> and what a year it has been for tech. gadgets and gizmos. apple, facebook, microsoft all have big news. will 2013 be a lucky year for the sector? which tech titans might lead the new trends? simon hobbs is in at the new york stock exchange. >> good afternoon. when president obama arrives back in d.c., can he prevent america falling over the fiscal cliff? house republicans haven't yet called their members back to washington. our chief political correspondent, john harwood, is with us. john, this feels very much like it might be the calm before the storm in more way than one. >> it could be if we go over the cliff and the storm woul
president obama cutting short his annual vacation in hawaii to deal with the fiscal cliff. no sight of congressional leaders. they're not in town. investors getting a little bit nervous. will congress get it together in time? no talks that we know of are imminent. it was by at least one measure, the weakest holiday retail sales growth since the financial crisis back in 2008, but could a post-christmas holiday sales bounce be around the corner? >>> and what a year it has been for tech....
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Dec 26, 2012
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i would rather see a much bigger fiscal cliff in the way of government spending cuts. that's what we really need. but if we're not going to do that, we're not going to cut spending, then the middle class has to brace for the bad news. they have to pay for all this government and the best way to do it is with taxes. unfortunately, taxes on the rich are not going to work. they are already overtaxed. it's the middle class that's going to have to pay more if we want all this government. >> do you think they can, peter, without destroying the economy? because the question i asked extensively last week is why is a couple hundred dollar tax rise to the middle class a doom now, but during the clinton era, it was praised? >> well, people don't have the home equity they had back then and they don't have the stock market wealth they had back then. >> costs have gone up. >> inflation, inflation has -- look at how much gas costs now compared to what it cost back then. food is a lot more expensive. look, the economy is buckling under the weight of all this government. no, i don't th
i would rather see a much bigger fiscal cliff in the way of government spending cuts. that's what we really need. but if we're not going to do that, we're not going to cut spending, then the middle class has to brace for the bad news. they have to pay for all this government and the best way to do it is with taxes. unfortunately, taxes on the rich are not going to work. they are already overtaxed. it's the middle class that's going to have to pay more if we want all this government. >> do...
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Dec 27, 2012
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. >> tt is the administration prepared to go over the fiscal cliff? >> oh, absolutely. there's no prospect to an agreement that doesn't involve those rates going up on the top 2% of the wealthiest -- remember, it's only 2%. and all of those americans get a tax cut on the framework of the first $250,000 of their income. >> yeah, yeah, you still get the 250, andrew. they love that. what does oh, absolutely mean, bob? >> maybe it means his favorite movie was "rebel without a cause." >> go the. >> i guess it's letting the other side know you're willing to go eyeball to eyeball with something that is terrible. >> i see both sides pretending to say, yeah, we're doing all we can, but it's almost just like this -- like boehner just said, hey, you guys, you happen, in the democratic-controlled senate, you put a bill together. i'd love to consider it. he can't get his guys to consider a democratic bill. >> as long as they feel like they can blame the other guy, they feel they have cover. this is not really where we want to go with this. this isn't simply miscalculation. this is a
. >> tt is the administration prepared to go over the fiscal cliff? >> oh, absolutely. there's no prospect to an agreement that doesn't involve those rates going up on the top 2% of the wealthiest -- remember, it's only 2%. and all of those americans get a tax cut on the framework of the first $250,000 of their income. >> yeah, yeah, you still get the 250, andrew. they love that. what does oh, absolutely mean, bob? >> maybe it means his favorite movie was "rebel...
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Dec 26, 2012
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on to the fiscal cliff this morning. the president cutting his vacation short in hawaii. the president plans to leave for washington tonight. congress expected to return on thursday. president, guys, not expected to actually arrive in washington until tomorrow morning. no talks scheduled that we know of as of yet. all the attention's going to turn to the senate, which tends to be more of a compromising body than the house is. >> yes. and the president is available in person if you should want to go over there and visit with him. or perhaps if he wants to visit with anybody else. the consensus seems to be if you get some sort of a deal, it's obviously not going to be the big deal. it will simply be something that extends the tax cuts for the vast majority of americans, at least those earning less than $250,000 a year. the consensus seems to be, carl, that if we don't get a deal by the second or third or fourth week, the super bowl week, we'll start to feel it in the economy. >> we had a notable sell-off. there is typically a bias on christmas eve, but the worst christmas e
on to the fiscal cliff this morning. the president cutting his vacation short in hawaii. the president plans to leave for washington tonight. congress expected to return on thursday. president, guys, not expected to actually arrive in washington until tomorrow morning. no talks scheduled that we know of as of yet. all the attention's going to turn to the senate, which tends to be more of a compromising body than the house is. >> yes. and the president is available in person if you should...
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Dec 24, 2012
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one in three americans have cut personal spending over fiscal cliff worries about the economy. >> i'm definitely shopping on a budget because i just wrote a book, and i had to spend a lot of money to get the book printed. so i have to be very careful. >> i guess we're always on a budget but we always exceed the budget. >> my budget is lower than last year. but it's going okay. i'm still able to get people little gifts here and there. >> we're spending a lot of money this year. we're buying everybody gifts this year. just because i guess it's almost random. >> notice the only one blowing the budget is the woman. notice most of those people we interviewed are guys, because who else waits to the last minute? back to you, joe. >> you're right. although i was a little early this year. but i did it the right way this year, jane, i took her with me. because the humiliation of returning something, you know, four times a year, anniversary, birthday, christmas -- >> would you call my husband and tell him that? >> he should take you, right? it wasn't easy. physically i could carry her. >> any ti
one in three americans have cut personal spending over fiscal cliff worries about the economy. >> i'm definitely shopping on a budget because i just wrote a book, and i had to spend a lot of money to get the book printed. so i have to be very careful. >> i guess we're always on a budget but we always exceed the budget. >> my budget is lower than last year. but it's going okay. i'm still able to get people little gifts here and there. >> we're spending a lot of money this...
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Dec 29, 2012
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the debt limit and not the fiscal cliff. >> what's it going to look like when we have this fight about the debt ceiling. >> robert just said that the one thing that has been brought up is the debt ceiling as part of the negotiation and the other thing that they've mentioned are the spending cuts and he'll make an offer to put those on the table and part of that is that these are not popular right now and we could have an intellectual exercise about whether they should be, about whether it's proper or not, but the political reality is barack obama just wants to campaign and the liberals did very well. ? they didn't win the house. >> what's that? >> they didn't win the house. >> you're absolutely right. you're absolutely right. from a messaging perspective, from a messaging perpective, was there not an aacclimation. >> i have to get jimmy in here. >> eebt ally the financial markets will send a message. you need to do something about this debt and then we're talking draconian cuts and draconian tax increases and why we're not doing it now. >> what's your new year's resolution and what sho
the debt limit and not the fiscal cliff. >> what's it going to look like when we have this fight about the debt ceiling. >> robert just said that the one thing that has been brought up is the debt ceiling as part of the negotiation and the other thing that they've mentioned are the spending cuts and he'll make an offer to put those on the table and part of that is that these are not popular right now and we could have an intellectual exercise about whether they should be, about...
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Dec 26, 2012
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let's hit today's options action, of course, scott nations, we've been talking about the fiscal cliff. you talk about that, talk about going over the cliff, sequestration and defense spending cuts. what did you see today in the defense names?dynamics, which is just going to be in the cross hairs, we saw somebody roll their productive puts up. we've been talking about put buying in all of these names and in general dynamics, we saw somebody roll up from the january 62 half puts to the 65 puts. so, they bought that spread, they bout the jan half spread 12,000 times and they rolled their puts up to the 65 strike. they are now long the 65 puts and they're long in an effective price of about $1.15. meaning they are protected down to $63.85. that's quite a ways from where the stock closed today, but you know, if the fiscal cliff gets any messier, then we can be there pretty quickly. >> yeah. guy, this was your trade that you recommended, should we reach a deal on the cliff. monster run, all the defense stocks since the beginning of november. >> i traded on the long side. i understand why pe
let's hit today's options action, of course, scott nations, we've been talking about the fiscal cliff. you talk about that, talk about going over the cliff, sequestration and defense spending cuts. what did you see today in the defense names?dynamics, which is just going to be in the cross hairs, we saw somebody roll their productive puts up. we've been talking about put buying in all of these names and in general dynamics, we saw somebody roll up from the january 62 half puts to the 65 puts....
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Dec 24, 2012
12/12
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>> the day before christmas, of course, still no fiscal cliff resolution. the $500 billion in spending cuts and tax increases start on january 1st unless the white house and congress reach some sort of agreement. we're joined by former pennsylvania governor ed rendell, co-chair of the campaign to fix the debt. and a cnbc contributor. governor, happy holidays. good morning to you. >> good morning, guys. >> so we're sitting here wondering what can be done in the next seven days. even in your role, if you're having to reset expectations. >> sure. i think it's fair to say the campaign is disappointed. we're not going to -- unless lightning strikes, we're not going to get a big deal. we're going to get something that avoid the cliff. kicks the can down the road on the serious issues. the serious issues, the can gets kicked into the debt ceiling. president says he's not going to deal with the debt ceiling. who knows what's going to happen at that point. i think we blew an opportunity in the last seven weeks to really sit down, do something good for the country, d
>> the day before christmas, of course, still no fiscal cliff resolution. the $500 billion in spending cuts and tax increases start on january 1st unless the white house and congress reach some sort of agreement. we're joined by former pennsylvania governor ed rendell, co-chair of the campaign to fix the debt. and a cnbc contributor. governor, happy holidays. good morning to you. >> good morning, guys. >> so we're sitting here wondering what can be done in the next seven days....
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Dec 27, 2012
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we acted to put off the fiscal cliff several months ago with a bill that without objection tend all of those bush tax rates into the future and would turn off the sequester by switching defense cuts over to domestic programs. democrats, of course have no intention of doing that. especially after president obama won the election. senate democratic leadership aide tells me that will remains a 50/50 chance we will get a mini deal temporary extension of tax cuts under $250,000 before the january 1 deadline when we would go over the cliff. will are no assurances of that. a white house official told me as president obama prepares to fly back to conduct and participate in the negotiations at the end, there has been no progress over the holiday weekend. michelle, i'm afraid that people who are looking for a deal and looking for a deal by december 31, all hope is not lost. it is not looking good at the moment. >> let's go back to this hitting the debt ceiling on monday. we learned of this because treasury secretary tim good night mother sent a letter to the honorable harry reid majority leader.
we acted to put off the fiscal cliff several months ago with a bill that without objection tend all of those bush tax rates into the future and would turn off the sequester by switching defense cuts over to domestic programs. democrats, of course have no intention of doing that. especially after president obama won the election. senate democratic leadership aide tells me that will remains a 50/50 chance we will get a mini deal temporary extension of tax cuts under $250,000 before the january 1...
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Dec 28, 2012
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we could tax all the rich people and cut their heads off and it wouldn't help the medicare fiscal cliff. we need to do both, and the president has to lead it. if he does, i'm ready to work with him and so are a lot of other republicans and democrats. >> so, mandy, a lot of different proposals floating around here in washington. a lot of ideas. a lot of attempts to read the minds of those key people in the room. >> eamon, is it true that some senators have left the boat and are fishing on their own for a deal? >> yeah. there are a couple of different proposals floating around out there now. you always have it in the senate, gangs of two, three, four, five senators put out their own ideas. at this late hour what the markets should focus on are the five leaders and the president that will be in that room. anything coming from any other senator is probably not fully baked enough to get through here at this point. it has to come from the leadership. >> eamon, thank you very much. appreciate it. >>> higher taxes is part of the cliff story. our next guest says there are other concerns that go
we could tax all the rich people and cut their heads off and it wouldn't help the medicare fiscal cliff. we need to do both, and the president has to lead it. if he does, i'm ready to work with him and so are a lot of other republicans and democrats. >> so, mandy, a lot of different proposals floating around here in washington. a lot of ideas. a lot of attempts to read the minds of those key people in the room. >> eamon, is it true that some senators have left the boat and are...
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Dec 28, 2012
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eastern time today in a last ditch effort to avoid the fiscal cliff. the house majority leader eric cantor is now telling members to be prepared to work through january 2nd. both sides still far apart, however, on taxes and spending cuts. senate majority leader harry reid says prospects for a deal by monday are still unlikely. there was a lot of movement, motion for not a lot of action. >> where were you yesterday? >> i was here. we were together. >> were we ever with our -- no. but there were duelling senate leaders just -- first mcconnell came on. and he said -- did you see either one of those? >> i did. >> did you see harry reid? >> there's no chance of -- >> but if you think -- i want to rise above. there was so little of anything close to that yesterday other than just the -- i mean, people at home must be like, it's the endless blaming and finger pointing and, you know, when one side says it's all the other side's fault and all the other side comes on and says people at home aren't going, wow, i believe you, harry. or i believe i, mitch. they're
eastern time today in a last ditch effort to avoid the fiscal cliff. the house majority leader eric cantor is now telling members to be prepared to work through january 2nd. both sides still far apart, however, on taxes and spending cuts. senate majority leader harry reid says prospects for a deal by monday are still unlikely. there was a lot of movement, motion for not a lot of action. >> where were you yesterday? >> i was here. we were together. >> were we ever with our --...